We are pleased to invite you to a joint event with BCA Research:
Strategy Outlook:
Waiting For The Whites Of The Recession’s Eyes
With Peter Berezin
Back in 2022 and 2023, when most strategists were expecting an imminent recession, Peter Berezin predicted that the US and most other major economies would experience an “immaculate disinflation,” whereby inflation would fall with very little cost to growth. This made him bullish on stocks.
Peter’s outlook on the economy and equities soured over the course of 2024 and towards the end of that year, he advised investors to buy puts on the SPY. He used the post-Liberation Day sell-off to exit the recommendation for a gain of 536%. However, his subsequent recommendation to short ACWI flopped, causing him to close the trade for a substantial loss.
Now, Peter is moderately bearish on stocks, while he weighs the risks to growth versus the risks of higher inflation.
In his presentation, Peter will also discuss:
His "kinked Phillips curve framework," which predicted the immaculate disinflation and is now flagging risks of a US recession.
The outlook for US inflation and monetary policy, notably given the issues surrounding the politicization of the Fed.
Growth prospects in the rest of the world, focusing on Europe and China.
Where he sees the S&P 500 going in a recessionary and non-recessionary scenario.
Whether AI stocks will continue to outperform.
The trajectory for the US dollar and why he thinks the yen will be the top-performing currency over the next 12 months.
Why he remains bullish on gold and where he sees oil and copper prices going from here.
The latest signals from his MacroQuant model, which distils hundreds of leading indicators to predict the direction of stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.
When: 25. September, 6:00pm, presentation and Q&A followed by drinks & snacks
Where: Klyo, Uraniastraße 1, 1010 Wien, https://klyo.at/
Please register by sending an email to kathrin.schneeweiss@cfaaustria.org.
We are looking forward to welcoming you on September 25.