We are pleased to invite you to a joint event with BCA Research:
Strategy Outlook:
Waiting For The Whites Of The Recession’s Eyes
With Peter Berezin
Back in 2022-23, while most strategists were expecting a US recession, Peter Berezin stood out by predicting an upside growth surprise and an “immaculate disinflation.” In 2024, he shifted gears, raising his recession odds after Trump’s win and advising puts on the SPY, netting a 536% gain post-Liberation Day. However, his subsequent short on the ACWI ETF missed the mark as global equities hit all-time highs.
In his presentation, Peter will discuss:
Why global growth is likely to surprise on the downside, with a 60% chance that the US enters a recession over the next 12 months.
Whether it is too early to breathe a sigh of relief on the trade war, and why there is a much greater danger that looms in the form of rising bond yields.
The inflation outlook, including thoughts on tariff-induced inflation.
How growth will evolve in the euro area, UK, Canada, and the various cyclical and secular issues plaguing China.
Where the S&P 500 will be in a recessionary scenario.
How investors should be positioned regionally and from a sectoral standpoint.
The US dollar’s trajectory, both in the near and longer term, and why the yen could be the top-performing major currency in the second half of 2025.
On commodities, how the evolution of global growth and geopolitical tensions will impact oil, industrial metals, and gold.
Views on AI, crypto, and the implications for asset allocation.
When: 25. September, 6:00pm, presentation and Q&A followed by drinks & snacks
Where: Klyo, Uraniastraße 1, 1010 Wien, https://klyo.at/
Please register by sending an email to kathrin.schneeweiss@cfaaustria.org.
We are looking forward to welcoming you on September 25.